FEE sits down with Gabriel Calzada amidst the 2024 EU elections to discuss the most urgent issues facing the EU today.
The recent European Parliament elections revealed a citizenry exhausted by economic stagnation and centralized planning. More than 350 million Europeans voted to shift the balance of power from the center to the right, with the victory of the conservative European People’s Party, which secured 189 seats out of 720 compared to the 135 of the Social Democratic Party.
To understand the context of European politics and its effects, we interviewed Gabriel Calzada, PhD in Economics from the University Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, founder of the Juan de Mariana Institute in Spain, and president of the University of the Hespérides and the Mont Pelerin Society. Gabriel was also the rector of the Francisco Marroquín University in Guatemala and has been invited by the U.S. Congress and Senate to testify on energy and environmental policy matters.
Q: Given the diversity of political perspectives within the EU, how do you think the new Parliament will address the challenges of building consensus and advancing a coherent agenda?
A: “This significant change in the composition of the European Parliament will bring new ways of tackling the challenges facing the European Union. Key changes will include, on the one hand, a more restrictive approach to immigration. On the other hand, this composition will question the grand European plans intended to design the future of the EU from Brussels or Strasbourg; the Agenda 2030 will undergo significant changes, and many of its requirements will be modified.
“There will likely be greater openness regarding the types of energy allowed in the EU, changes in agricultural sector restrictions, and potentially a delay, if not elimination, of restrictions related to the use of combustion engine vehicles. I believe new parties will want these plans to be uniform across all EU countries.
“Additionally, we will see increased debates on migration. The European Parliament will face strong nationalist sentiments from all corners of the EU, which will inevitably diminish the importance of pan-European policies, presenting a problem. However, from a pragmatic standpoint, the rise of nationalism could decentralize policies within the EU. Will the negative effects outweigh the positives? This will be an interesting point of analysis in the coming years.”
Q: Could you explain, especially for our American readers who might not be aware, what is happening regarding the rise of nationalist parties in EU member states? What do you think are the key factors driving this trend, and how could it shape the political landscape of the EU?
A: “The results of the European Parliament elections are not surprising, but they do mark a significant change in the Parliament’s composition. Two important points to consider are the growth of ‘new right’ parties and the decline of green parties, which lost between a quarter and a third of their representation in the Parliament.
“The rise of ‘alternative right’ parties is significant and related to a certain type of nationalism. We can understand European voting and party positioning around the idea of sovereignty: whether they envision a more sovereign Europe or seek to retain national self-determination.
“This has been a central campaign issue for many years. The position representing a more sovereign Europe, was embodied by the French government under Emmanuel Macron and the German government under the social-democratic Green coalition. These are the big losers of the elections. The big winners are those advocating for greater national sovereignty.”
Q: What are the factors behind this?
A: “I believe there are two fundamental factors. The first, less discussed, is European stagnation. Europe has been relatively stagnant since the beginning of the century, which is key for understanding our political evolution.
“The second factor is immigration, particularly in the context of this stagnation. A significant portion of the European population is fearful of immigration, and this sentiment is not exclusive to the new right. For example, the German Green Party, positioned on the left, has made statements about accelerating deportations and making immigration more restrictive.
“Parties advocating not only for retaining national sovereignty but also opposing the green deal’s approach have gained considerable support. To illustrate the growth of these new right parties, the European People’s Party, the most voted force, holds about 189 seats, followed by the social-democratic bloc with 135 seats. If we sum the seats held by these new right parties, they would be the second political force in the European Parliament after the European People’s Party, which represents a more traditional right.
“It’s noteworthy that in Germany, they have become the second most voted for force; in France, the first, leading Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call for elections by the end of the month; in the Netherlands, the second; in Belgium, possibly the first; in Austria, the first; in Italy, the first; and in Spain, the third.
“We see a heterogeneous group of right-wing parties positioned among the most voted for parties in several countries that hold significant weight in the European Parliament and European politics in general.”
Q: In your opinion, what are the most urgent issues facing the EU today, and how might the new Parliament address these challenges?
A: “Europe faces numerous problems. I would highlight three: the energy crossroads the EU finds itself in; the culture of believing that growth can be achieved through subsidies; and the lack of growth and innovation in the EU.
“Starting with the latter, the lack of innovation and growth has been evident for a long time. In 2000, the Lisbon Agenda aimed to make Europe the most innovative and competitive region in the world within ten years, which obviously did not happen. A decade later, Europe fell even further behind compared to the United States and much of Asia. So, the EU created a new plan with top-down policies to achieve greater competitiveness.
“This has not happened and will not happen as long as the mentality that growth comes from centralized directives and decrees remains. This mindset must change to solve this major problem, which is a reason for many protest votes against the status quo.
“Another point is the culture of living and believing in growth through subsidies. NextGenerationEU sends a massive amount of subsidies from the EU to individual countries to recover from the pandemic-induced crisis. This represents one of the most significant statist experiments of recent decades. The EU’s belief that public funds directed at specific sectors through the Green Deal, directed by NextGenerationEU, is a major error and a dividing point among many parties that have gained power in these elections. Many people are fed up as public funding is not solving anything and is creating a perception of two classes in Europe: one that struggles to maintain a decent life in developed countries and another that lives well off subsidies, fostering resentment.
“Lastly, the energy crossroads, where years of dictating energy production sources have led much of the European industry to seek more energy-certainty elsewhere. Simultaneously, energy poverty is increasingly discussed, with many EU families spending a significant portion of their income on energy, sometimes over 10%.
“Can the new composition of the European Parliament change policy regarding these hot issues? It’s very possible we will see a moderation in these policies. The strength of the Green Deal may be softened, and funding reduced. However, predicting changes in economic growth policies is much more difficult.”
Q: Could you explain the ongoing debate about what the EU’s role in global affairs should be? And how do you think the election results will shape the EU’s foreign policy priorities?
A: “European foreign policy has been influenced by internal European policy, characterized by fiscal, energy, and redistributive dogmatism. This has translated into an attempt to export these policies to the rest of the world, especially Africa and Latin America.
“The European election results could be an opportunity to change this foreign policy, shifting towards commercial openness and decentralization.
“The failure of the 2030 Agenda, which has left Europeans poorer and less competitive, must now be reflected in European foreign policy. In other words, the challenge posed by these election results to the status quo can be seen as a challenge to European global policy.
“I believe we are facing a great opportunity. The shift to the right in the European elections, not merely for the sake of moving right but as a challenge to harmonization policies and top-down directives dictating what each country, and especially each European region, should do, presents a significant opportunity for a more decentralized, liberal, and open Europe.”
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As Gabriel explained to us, Europe could face years of changes, potentially diminishing the role of centralized bodies like the European Parliament in shaping economic policies across the continent. While this shift promises innovation and competition within energy markets, it also raises several concerns, particularly regarding proposals from the new right in areas such as migration policy, which have reignited nationalist sentiments that could jeopardize political freedoms and individual rights.
The European Union and its political bodies were initially conceived to offer coordination among neighboring countries, to facilitate trade and maintain peace, but over the years it evolved into a bureaucratic machine that hinders innovation and competition and arrogantly centrally directs the lives of millions of individuals. True progress does not emerge from supranational bodies like the EU, but from the bottom-up initiatives of free individuals.
