Freeman

ARTICLE

The Great German Inflation

JUNE 01, 1975 by BRUCE BARTLETT

Filed Under : Austrian Economics

Mr. Bartlett is a graduate student in history at Georgetown University.

The February issue of the British magazine, Encounter, contains a heretofore unpublished lecture by the famous novelist, Thomas Mann, which recalls his experience with the great German inflation of 19131923. "A straight line," he tells us, "runs from the madness of the German Inflation to the madness of the Third Reich."

Just as the Germans saw their marks inflated into millions and billions and in the end bursting, so they were later to see their state inflated into "the Reich of all the Germans", "the German Living Space", "the New Europe", and "the New World Order", and so too they will see it burst. In those days the market woman who without batting an eyelash demanded a hundred million for an egg, lost the capacity for surprise. And nothing that has happened since has been insane or cruel enough to surprise her.

It was during the inflation that the Germans forgot how to rely on themselves as individuals and learned to expect everything from "politics", from the "state", from "destiny." They learned to look on life as a wild adventure, the outcome of which depended not on their own effort but on sinister, mysterious forces. The millions who were then robbed of their wages and savings became the "masses" with whom Dr. Goebbels was to operate.

Inflation is a tragedy that makes a whole people cynical, hardhearted and indifferent. Having been robbed, the Germans became a nation of robbers?

This terrible inflation, which Mann credits for the rise of Hitler, had its origin in another holocaust: World War I. Like every other nation involved in that conflict, Germany was entirely unprepared for its intensity. German, French, and British troops all marched off in August 1914 absolutely convinced they would be home by Christmas.

The German High Command shared this optimism, having full faith in the ability of the Schlieffen Plan to bring quick victory. With the resulting total war, outlasting the enemy became the only path to victory for either side.

At this point, Germany discovered just how badly it was prepared for this new kind of warfare. Cut off from its sources of food by a British blockade and failing to achieve any kind of breakthrough on the Western front, Germany began to gamble, as it did when it unleashed its submarines. At home too, the government began to gamble. The people, having been bled white by taxation already, had to be urged on to greater sacrifice. Toward this end, the government resorted to inflation on a mass scale, gambling that the people would be unaware of what was happening.

Inflation an Indirect Tax

Here, one should keep in mind that inflation, in its crudest form, is nothing but an indirect tax. The government, with its monopoly on the issuance of currency, found it simple to play the role of counterfeiter. It simply paid for the goods it needed with newly created money. Since an individual’s conception of his money’s worth is basically shaped by his past memory of its purchasing power, this process can go on for some time before it begins to significantly affect the price level.

During the war, goods were being withdrawn from the economy for war materiel and, simultaneously, fewer goods were being produced as workers became soldiers. At the same time, the government was increasing the money supply rapidly as it became increasingly difficult to raise needed funds from taxation or direct borrowing.

Historically, the speed at which people spend tends to remain relatively constant unless they expect a sudden change in economic relationships. Accelerated spending classically occurs when people feel that their money is losing its value. At this point, they begin to spend every cent they can get as quickly as possible before prices go up again. This only tends to raise prices even higher and drop the value of the money correspondingly. Economist Ludwig von Mises, a resident of Austria at the time, graphically described this process:

In normal times, that is in periods in which the government does not tamper with the monetary standard, people do not bother about monetary problems. Quite naively they take it for granted that the monetary unit’s purchasing power is "stable." They pay attention to changes occurring in the money-prices of the various commodities. They know very well that the exchange-ratios between commodities vary. But they are not conscious of the fact that the exchange-ratio between money on the one side and all commodities and services on the other side is variable too. When the inevitable consequences of inflation appear and prices soar, they think that commodities are becoming dearer and fail to see that money is getting cheaper…. This ignorance of the public is the indispensable basis of the inflationary policy. Inflation works as long as the housewife thinks: "I need a new frying pan badly. But prices are too high today; I shall wait until they drop again." It comes to an abrupt end when people discover that the inflation will continue, that it causes the rise in prices, and that therefore prices will skyrocket indefinitely. The critical stage begins when the housewife thinks: "I don’t need a new frying pan to-day; I may need one in a year or two. But I’ll buy it today because it will be much more expensive later." Then the catastrophic end of the inflation is close. In its last stage the housewife thinks: "I don’t need another table; I shall never need one. But it’s wiser to buy a table than keep these scraps of paper that the government calls money, one minute longer."2

This entire process was set in motion when the Reichsbank suspended the redeemability of its notes in gold with the outbreak of war. As long as the paper currency was tied to a finite amount of gold, the currency also remained within finite limits. When this restraint was cast aside, there was no longer any legal limit to the amount of money that could be manufactured. The government, in turn, used this freedom to force the bank to buy its bonds, which the bank paid for by creating deposits in the government’s account. In this way, the German debt became monetized, just as the American debt is today monetized by the Federal Reserve System. Simply put, this means that the government’s debts are ultimately paid for by the consumer’s loss of purchasing power; the creation of new money serving only to cheapen all money already in circulation. In Germany, this meant that by the end of 1918, the amount of money in circulation had increased fourfold. One would have expected this to lead to approximately a fourfold rise in prices, more when one considers the corresponding cutback in production, but in fact they only rose 140 per cent. This is because consumers were not yet fully aware that the rise in prices was due not only to goods being less available, but also due to inflation of the money supply.

Huge Deficits

To be sure, even the victorious nations had practiced the German method for financing their debts and experienced a similar rise in prices. But with the cessation of hostilities, they returned to sound fiscal and monetary policies. In Germany, the government made no effort to return to pre-war spending levels and continued to run huge budget deficits, as the following table demonstrates.

YEAR    REVENUE* EXPENSE*

DEFICIT*

1919     2,559   8,560

5,999

1920     3,178   9,329

6,054

1921     2,927   6,651

3,676

1922     1,488         3,951

2,442

1923** 519            5,278

4,690

*In millions of gold marks.

 

**April to October only.

 

 

As one can see, the debt mounted with each passing year, almost all of it being funded through monetization. The reasons for this were partly humanitarian, partly political, and partly selfish. On the one hand, there was terrific pressure for relief and rebuilding. Then too, the government sought to use inflation as a psychological weapon against the Allies. Finally, there was pressure from those benefiting from the inflation, which will be dealt with below. But the single most important factor in the ensuing hyperinflation was economic law. As people slowly began to realize that their money was losing its value, they began drawing out bank deposits and spending what they had as quickly as possible. This run on the banks and the tremendous increase in the demand for cash put fierce pressure on the treasury to stave off collapse with a flood of freshly minted bills. Thus the figures for total money in circulation begin to follow a pattern (in millions of marks): 1913, 6,070; 1920, 81,338; 1921, 122,500; 1922, 1,295,231; 1923, 2,274,000,000.4 And the effect on the price level inevitably followed a similar pattern:5

 

WHOLESALE

YEAR

PRICE INDE)

July 1914

1.0

Jan. 1919

2.6

July 1919

3.4

Jan. 1920

12.6

Jan. 1921

14.4

July 1921

14.3

Jan. 1922

36.7

July 1922

100.6

Jan. 1923

2,785.0

July 1923

194,000.0

Nov. 1923

726,000,000,000.0

 

Search for Scapegoats

Needless to say, the government never admitted its role in this, but instead sought out easy scapegoats. The most popular one was the Versailles Treaty. After all, the people already hated the Allies, so why not exploit it to good use? The campaign was so successful that even intelligent economists like Dr. Hjalmar Schacht accepted and perpetuated the myth: "The true cause of the inflation after the war was the perpetual pressure exercised by the Reparation Commission on Germany in the attempt to extort payments to foreign countries which in the nature of things could not be made."6 The truth of the matter is that reparations expenses only made up about a third of the German budget deficit throughout the entire period. In his book, The Economics of Inflation, Costantino Bresciani-Turroni compiled the following figures:7

YEAR       DEFICIT*

REPARATIONS*

1920       6,053.6

1,850.9

1921       3,675.8

2,810.3

1922       2,442.3

1,136.7

1923**    6,538.3

742.4

*In millions of gold marks.

 

**April to December only.

 

 

Consequently, the reparations alone cannot account for the deficits or the ensuing inflation. The truth of this was, of course, irrelevant. There were plenty of other causes for the inflation which could also be exploited. To blame profiteering became particularly popular because, as in the case of reparations, there was some truth in it. This is how Thomas Mann saw those who profited from the crisis:

For at least a section of this ruling class, the big industrialists, the inflation was profitable; they were in no hurry to stop it. During those years the Krupps, Stinneses, Thyssens, etc., got rid of their indebtedness, which ran into real millions, by paying their creditors in inflated millions, and thanks to these same inflated millions they acquired real millions-worth of property.

Though Germany was very poor at that time, it possessed great wealth in mineral resources and industrial plant. During the inflation a radical change occurred; this wealth became concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. The small and medium property-owners lost their holdings, and the biggest snapped them up. They acquired property and paid with paper. Years later one could hear it said that such and such a factory or mine was unproductive and would not be profitable if it had not been acquired for next-to-nothing during the Inflation….8

Not a Major Cause

It would be a vast distortion, however, to say that profiteering in general was a contributing cause to the economic crisis. It is in the very nature of inflation that some will reap great profits. It was only those big industrialists like Hugo Stinnes who consciously realized what was taking place and deliberately sought to influence the government toward inflation.9 For the rest, who reaped windfalls through no conscious effort, through simple foresight or luck, some defense should be made. Many of these entrepreneurs became the objects of scorn and an easy target for political extremists. The fact that many were also Jewish cannot be discounted as an explanation for their persecution. As early as 1920, John Maynard Keynes spoke up for these innocent entrepreneurs in a moving passage from The Economic Consequences of the Peace. "Lenin," he wrote,” is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency."

By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers," who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoises, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat…. These "profiteers" are, broadly speaking, the entrepreneuer class of capitalists, that is to say, the active and constructive element in the whole capitalist society, who in a period of rapidly rising prices cannot help but get rich quick whether they wish it or desire it or not. If prices are continually rising, every trader who has purchased for stock or who owns property and plant inevitably makes profits. By directing hatred against this class, therefore, the European Governments are carrying a step further the fatal process which the subtle mind of Lenin consciously conceived.¹º

Thus we find the German government actively appealing to the lowest human emotions of jealousy, envy, and greed in order to hide its own responsibility for the economic disruption. And inevitably this was to play right into the hands of demagogues like Adolf Hitler. It is no coincidence that he made his first bid for power at the height of the inflation; in the beerhall putsch of November 8, 1923. Historians and economists, therefore, are in general agreement that the inflation can be given much credit for the rise of Hitler. For although he did not come to actual power for another decade, the putdown of the putsch supplied the Nazis with many martyrs to aggrieve, and it was during his subsequent prison term that Hilter wrote Mein Kampf.. Thus, as early as 1937, Lionel Robbins could declare emphatically that "Hilter is the foster-child of the inflation."¹¹


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